Although the peak of the first panic seems to be over, the markets are settling in at the new levels reached. It is possible that growth will continue, Wall Street investment banks estimate the potential in a wide range, allowing growth up to $250 per barrel.
At the same time, OPEC + is not eager to increase supplies, and this may be caused not only by the desire for higher prices, but also by certain questions about the US dollar as a means of capital preservation. Such questions are natural for any holders of large dollar reserves after the US used, according to analysts at Credit Suisse, the dollar as a weapon against Russia. Reserve freeze measures have never been used on such a scale before.
All of the above, and especially the gradually growing fear for the future of the dollar as a reserve currency, is pushing up the price of gold - the only real alternative to the dollar as a store of value, in the face of sharply growing inflationary and geopolitical risks. Regardless of how the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West end, perhaps in some positive scenario of de-escalation, the reserves of the Bank of Russia will be unfrozen - "the sediment will remain." The arbitrariness of the "masters of the dollar" is too great in recent years, who either print it in trillions without regard to inflation, thus burning in real terms the savings of those who relied on the American currency, or simply confiscate the savings with their arbitrary decision, not based on international law (regardless of political views on the conflict in this context, it is worth remembering that relations between Russia and the United States are not frozen at the level of diplomatic contacts, in contrast to relations between the United States and Iran, whose reserves are also frozen).
It is worth assuming that the financial world has begun to undergo irreversible changes. Of course, one should not talk about the “death of the dollar” as a national currency and a currency for international payments. Its widespread use is due to the strength and size of the American economy. But it is worth thinking about alternatives, and an increasing number of investors, primarily institutional ones, will think about it. And private investors should, in this regard, look more towards gold. Especially to private investors in Russia. The dollar is now the currency of a hostile country, the supply of which has been cut off. In this regard, it will eventually lose liquidity in the Russian market, giving way to gold as a global alternative.
For the Russian investor, everything else, except for gold, does not look very attractive today. The stock market is closed. If it opens, the debt market is unlikely to quickly recover from the shock after the shock growth in ruble yields. The economic difficulties that the country is going through will leave inflation in double digits for a long time. On the stock market, individual “unsinkable” stories will become interesting, such as Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel or Rusal, occupying critically important niches in the global market. But who can guarantee that in difficult times the state will not make them "cash cows" for the budget, leaving little to the shareholders?
Real estate? For renting out during a period of high rates and falling incomes of the population - a bad topic. Expensive, depreciates over time, requires money to maintain, and rental income is negative in real terms. Cash currency or rubles? Both are subject to inflation. Deposits in banks are subject to the risks of the financial system, both ruble and, to a greater extent, deposits in foreign currencies. Cryptocurrency? Firstly, it is too volatile, and secondly, its infrastructure may also be subject to sanctions risks. So, in the current situation, gold is becoming practically an uncontested means of maintaining value even in the medium term, not to mention the long term.