Stock markets have been feverish for several weeks now, so investors are eager to buy up defensive assets. Thus, the volume of shares in gold exchange funds reached a new record, showing an increase of almost 600 tons this year. In addition, a sudden jump in the exchange rate was affected by a decrease in the American currency index at the beginning of this week. However, now the situation with the dollar has improved, hence the drop in the price of precious metals to $ 1,770 per ounce. However, the restoration of the dollar’s ​​position may turn out to be temporary if we recall that the Fed is preparing another package of financial stimulus for the economy.
However, even taking into account price volatility, for the yellow metal, the current quarter will be the most outstanding since the beginning of 2016. He is assisted in this by unprecedented economic stimulus measures initiated around the world, tensions between the United States and China, as well as concerns about the consequences of the pandemic. Note that on Wednesday, the IMF revised its forecast for global economic growth downward: the recession will be more protracted and deeper, and the economy will recover more slowly. The damage to the global economy from a pandemic will be 12 trillion. dollars in 2020-2021 The volume of world GDP in 2020 will decrease by 4.9%, which is 1.9% more compared to the previous forecast.
US stock indices are also falling in the face of an increasing number of diseases in the country. The authorities of the states and cities where new outbreaks of the pandemic have been discovered are considering options for strengthening quarantine, and the EU is discussing the continuation of the ban on the entry of Americans into the block countries after the opening of borders.
Recall that given the negative level of real interest rates, analysts at the American bank Goldman Sachs predict a rise in the gold exchange rate to $ 2,000 per ounce during the year. But, most likely, this forecast will be realized this summer.