Gold is consolidating in the new price range of $ 1540-1610 per ounce after a panicky surge in prices a week ago on news from the Middle East. The previous resistance in the area of ​​1535-1550 dollars now became support?
In the price of gold almost a week ago there was a minimum of $ 70-100 of the "Iranian" premium. However, after the situation became somewhat clearer and the risks of an armed conflict with Iran decreased to an acceptable minimum, the price rolled back down to the levels of $ 1,535–1,550, at which an intermediate “peak” occurred in September 2019, and which were from a powerful zone resistance has now become a support area.
We assume that the “Iranian aggravation” is far from complete, and its main watershed does not pass between the USA and Iran, but inside Iran itself, where the relatively moderate part of the elite is greatly annoyed by the sharp increase in more radical forces represented by the IRGC (Guardians of the Islamic Revolution ), one of the leaders of which (and the "main hawk" in Iran) was Kassem Suleimani, who was killed in an American strike. In addition, two important factors must be taken into account.
Firstly, Iran is a multi-ethnic country that needs a certain supranational ideology, which would be a "brace" that helps maintain the unity of the country from decay and separatism. For example, 20 million Azerbaijanis are living there, who need to ensure identity with the Persians. This identity is provided through the Shiite branch of Islam. The point, however, is that Shiites live not only in Iran - and this makes this identity (and the political influence associated with it) “exported” to the outside.
Secondly, the control of all beyond life by fanatical religious leaders does not imply adequate protection of property rights, nor socio-economic development and progress. The geopolitical contradictions and “crippling” sanctions imposed by the USA add to the difficulties. As a result, things are not going brilliantly in the Iranian economy - high inflation with a stagnant economy is steadily lowering the standard of living of the population, in which, moreover, the proportion of young people is very high. A large proportion of young people without adequate social elevators (in a declining economy) is an explosive cocktail for the country's social stability. By the combination of these factors, Iran is forced to constantly “export” instability to the outside so as not to explode from the inside. And this can go on indefinitely. Neither the collective West nor Iran’s neighbors in the region can do anything about it. Consequently, disturbing news from the region will regularly support a certain (either increasing or decreasing) "geopolitical premium" in oil and gold prices.